Smashing the “1 in 3 people with Covid-19 have no symptoms” claim
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https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3qm3zI0j_OA&t=8s
Over the period Dec 2020 - Feb 2021, the UK government, and its scientific advisers, made the persistent and widely publicised claim that "1 in 3 people with the SARS-Cov-2 virus have no symptoms”. We use a contemporaneous study of asymptomatics at Cambridge University to show that the claim is contradicted by the government’s own case numbers over that same period. We show: if the “1 in 3” claim is correct then, over this period, the actual infection rate must be at least 11 times higher than the infection rate reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), 0.71% ; and, secondly, if the reported infection rate of 0.71% is correct then the actual number of people with the virus, who have no symptoms, is at most 2.9% (1 in 34) and not 1 in 3. We argue that this contradiction can only be explained by the false positives being generated by RT-PCR testing. Hence, the published infection rate is estimating the number of people who test positive rather than the number of people with SARS-Cov-2 virus. When the false positive rate is correctly accounted for, the most likely explanation for the observed data, over the period in question, is an infection rate of approximately 0.375% rather than the ONS publicised claim of 0.71%. Likewise, we conclude that the actual number of people with the SARS-Cov-2 virus who have no symptoms is approximately 1 in 19 and not 1 in 3.
Full paper is here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350755197_What_proportion_of_people_with_COVID-19_do_not_get_symptoms
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3qm3zI0j_OA&t=8s
Over the period Dec 2020 - Feb 2021, the UK government, and its scientific advisers, made the persistent and widely publicised claim that "1 in 3 people with the SARS-Cov-2 virus have no symptoms”. We use a contemporaneous study of asymptomatics at Cambridge University to show that the claim is contradicted by the government’s own case numbers over that same period. We show: if the “1 in 3” claim is correct then, over this period, the actual infection rate must be at least 11 times higher than the infection rate reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), 0.71% ; and, secondly, if the reported infection rate of 0.71% is correct then the actual number of people with the virus, who have no symptoms, is at most 2.9% (1 in 34) and not 1 in 3. We argue that this contradiction can only be explained by the false positives being generated by RT-PCR testing. Hence, the published infection rate is estimating the number of people who test positive rather than the number of people with SARS-Cov-2 virus. When the false positive rate is correctly accounted for, the most likely explanation for the observed data, over the period in question, is an infection rate of approximately 0.375% rather than the ONS publicised claim of 0.71%. Likewise, we conclude that the actual number of people with the SARS-Cov-2 virus who have no symptoms is approximately 1 in 19 and not 1 in 3.
Full paper is here: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/350755197_What_proportion_of_people_with_COVID-19_do_not_get_symptoms